Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would win the presidential elections in the first round if elections, scheduled for October 2022, were held today, according to an opinion poll released on Wednesday.
This survey by the company Ipec is in line with another one released last week by the Datafolha Institute, which also gave the leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) a broad advantage over the current President, Jair Bolsonaro.
Ipec designed two possible scenarios for the elections. In the first, it offered respondents a list of five possible candidates.
The favorite would be Lula, with 48% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro, who would receive 23% of the support.
Far behind were labor leader Ciro Gomes (8%), São Paulo governor João Doria (3%), and former health minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta (3%).
This difference of eleven more points than all his opponents combined would lead Lula, who ruled Brazil between 2003 and 2010, to be proclaimed the winner in the first round.
In the second scenario, IPEC included ten candidates. Lula would then get 45% of the votes, compared to 22% for Bolsonaro and 18% for the other candidates, including former judge and minister Sergio Moro (5%).
With these percentages, the former union leader would be within the margin of error, which is two points, to also win in the first round, if the elections were held today.
Lula, who was authorized to run in elections after the courts overturned the two convictions for corruption against him, he hinted that he will run for office in 2022, if the PT so wishes.
For your part, Bolsonaro also plans to run for re-election, although his popularity is currently at its worst since he has been in power.
His government’s disapproval rate reached 53%, four points above the survey released in June by IPEC.
Voters who consider its administration “good” or “great” fell to 22%, the lowest level recorded this year.
These percentages are also similar to last week’s Datafolha survey.
The IPEC poll results are the result of 2002 face-to-face interviews in 141 municipalities across the country, held between 16 and 20 September.